Historical contract awards can tell a capture team where to investigate future demand. They cannot, by themselves, confirm when a buyer will compete again.
The output of this workflow is a renewal watchlist with source evidence, a date range and a next check. It is a preparation queue, not a list of live tenders.
Collect the dates that matter
Record buyer and supplier identifiers, award ID, lot, award date, contract signature date, actual or planned start, base duration, options, maximum end date and source publication date. Keep absent fields unknown.
The Open Contracting Data Standard release reference treats awards and contracts as distinct objects, including their dates and periods. That distinction prevents the common error of treating an award publication date as the service start date.
Inspect later modifications and buyer publications. A contract may start later than planned, exercise an option, end early or be replaced by a different scope.
Calculate a window, not a promised tender date
If the confirmed start and base duration are available, calculate the base end. If extensions are possible, add a separate maximum end supported by the terms. Mark whether an extension is merely permitted or known to have been exercised.
Illustrative example: a contract starts on 1 January 2027, runs three years, and permits two one-year extensions. The base end is 31 December 2029; the possible maximum end is 31 December 2031. Neither establishes when a new notice will be published.
Choose an internal research lead time based on the work needed to prepare. “Review twelve months before base end” is your team's planning assumption, not a legal rule or a forecast derived from the award.
Classify the evidence
| State | Evidence | Appropriate action |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmed contract window | Start and duration in contract or official notice | Schedule research before the end |
| Estimated window | One date inferred from incomplete information | Investigate the missing date first |
| Extension possible | Option exists; exercise unknown | Watch for modification and buyer updates |
| Confirmed new competition | Current notice and documents found | Start qualification on that notice |
| Ended or superseded | Official termination or replacement evidence | Update history and reassess scope |
For relevant EU contracts, modifications during the term have a legal framework under Article 72 of Directive 2014/24/EU. Do not assume a possible extension was exercised just because it was allowed.
Build the watch record
Include the official source URL, version checked, buyer, scope, current supplier, base end, maximum end, confidence, missing information, next review date and owner. Separate framework duration from individual call-off duration; the end of one does not automatically determine the other.
When an estimate changes, retain the previous assumption and the new source. This explains why the commercial timeline moved.
Turn the watch into preparation
Read the previous requirements to identify reference, partner and delivery work that can be prepared. Follow the buyer's published plans and consultation channels. Check classification and keywords again when a replacement competition appears: its scope may differ.
Use early discovery for preparation and the monitoring workflow for routing updates. Once an official competition is open, replace assumptions with its documents and complete bid/no-bid review.
Reviewed 13 September 2026. Date calculations are illustrative. This guide does not claim that Duke predicts renewal dates or that any named buyer has a forthcoming competition.